by Ian Moss
I was wrong, Corbyn did not drive Labour off a cliff, he won seats and he dramatically increased vote share. He comes out of the election stronger but that is partially because expectations were so low. His leadership was a galvanising force for youth and his language a refreshing change from wooden managerialism; authentic and without the timid terror of trained lines to take.
The challenge is still enormous for Labour. It has lost three elections in a row and is in no better a position, in seats, than it was in 2010 and the Conservatives no worse. Yes vote share has surged, but so too has it for the Conservative party. It’s possible we are back to the two player game for good. However, for the first time in a decade there is an obvious path, one which can galvanise Labour’s coalition of support and put an offer to the country that can bind older voters with the young.
Labour’s moderates can start to be much more confident on the economy and on public spending and move on from the paralysis they have faced since 1992 on it. The Conservatives have absented themselves from the issue of fiscal credibility, as the deficit still looms large, and the public are beginning to see the cracks in their local services. Labour can make the case for investment again, in return for modest increases on the taxes of those that can bear it most and a continuing commitment on efficiency and reform.
There is clearly an issue on tuition fees that resonates. The arguments and evidence don’t matter – that they have opened up access to HE for those from poorer backgrounds and that abolishing them is regressive – there is a swathe of the country that just don’t like the idea that they, or their children or grandchildren, start out in work with a large debt. There could be a way forward but it would have to be an equitable way forward. Remove fees, but do so on the basis of the broad offer Labour for adult education for all. People can take it at 18 or later, if they prefer. Blair had a similar plan – they called it individual learning accounts – that never took off. It would have to come with reform of HE for affordability and efficiency. A move to more two year degrees and a much greater expectation of studying at a local institution. If that can make the maths add up and keep both broad access and progressive distribution of opportunity, it could continue to be a vote winner but one that feels more progressive.
Labour should be gobbling up the ground for parents. Free childcare is an offer that may pay for itself in growth, but even if not, it is about equity for parents in the workplace and removing what is an enormous pressure for parents. Sometimes universality is right, and the Treasury will have to get over the theology of deadweight and start looking at the upsides of supporting people through the most difficult life events. Schools funding has to be fixed. This is an issue that resonated with every parent as they now get regular begging letters to fund basic provision.
The Conservatives offered space on inheritance and on tackling the ongoing intergenerational unfairness of the Pensions Triple Lock – and it ended very badly for them. A lock on pensions linked to GDP per head may offer a way out of the current ratchet. Despite this there has to be a better consensus on long term care and on the NHS. Labour’s call for funding has to be listened to, but the quid pro quo has to be a greater individual burden, whether that be inheritance or insurance. This also cannot come without improvements – but there is much that can be done through better use of technology to help individuals manage their health conditions better. Creating efficiency rather than focusing on structures.
Labour didn’t really have its policies tested, and next time they will. There has to be a story that locks together responsibility and progress on public services. The talent has to be bought back into the Shadow Cabinet and involved properly in decisions. However, the big lesson is optimism. Corbyn’s relentlessly positive messages may have belied a lack of grasp of detail, but it also offered a different way forward for the country. He has highlighted again the need to have a open, inspiring vision of “why Labour”. If Labour stops going round saying how terrible everything is, but as in 1997, tells a story of how good it could be there is a chance that this cheery defeat could be turned into a more satisfying victory next time.
Ian Moss has worked across government and is now in public affairs
